As the global economy strengthens, central banks must decide whether to ease back on policies that encourage growth and, if so, how. The global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 ushered in a new era of monetary policy making. Central banks across the globe—such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England—slashed interest rates and invented new ways to inject stimulus into their economies. Although the scars of the crisis are still evident, the global economy is far healthier now than it was ten years ago, thanks in large part to actions taken by central bankers.
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The recession would have been far worse without their aggressive and harmonized monetary response. Now ten years removed from entering crisis management mode, policymakers must figure out if (and how) they wish to undo these extreme measures to mitigate some of their unwanted side effects. Doing this would have the benefit of preventing inflation, impeding financial bubbles from developing, and making it easier for central banks to soften the damage in future crises. The trade-off is that it makes it costlier to finance business investments and consumer purchases, which has a negative impact on economic growth and international trade. The Federal Reserve is leading major central banks in raising interest rates Essentially, the question for policymakers boils down to whether they can remove stimulus without significantly reducing demand for goods and services.
The answer to that question will vary greatly for different economies, given the uneven nature of their recoveries and an assortment of risks that must be taken into consideration. Nevertheless, those decisions will have a profound influence on global trade flows over the next few years. Aggressive removal of stimulus could ground trade to a halt, but maintaining low interest rates for too long could stir up even bigger problems down the road.
Fed makes the first move The U.S. Recovery has outpaced those of other advanced economies, and so it is further along in its efforts to normalize monetary policy.
From 2015 to 2017, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates in irregular intervals and only by small amounts. However, in 2018 as U.S. Economic growth accelerated, the Fed began raising interest rates more steadily and at more predictable intervals. (See Figure 1.) Heading into 2019, the Fed intends to raise interest rates further. Interest rates are now more than halfway back to what the Fed considers neutral—a rate which is neither restrictive nor accommodative of economic growth. The Fed has also backed off its commitment to keep rates low for an extended period and has begun winding down its balance sheet assets, selling off some of the assets and bonds that it bought in the recession. Both of these actions will contribute to tighter financial conditions.
What the Fed's path should be going forward is more difficult to handicap, given questions about how much further the economic expansion has room to run. The Trump administration's fiscal stimulus measures—tax cuts and additional government spending—are designed to have their peak impact on economic growth in 2018. By late next year, these measures will no longer be supporting growth, andthe U.S.
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Economy will be more vulnerable to higher interest rates. This may create a policy 'fork in the road,' at which point the Fed must decide whether to prioritize lengthening the expansion or fending off inflation. Inflation is currently relatively muted, but labor market tightness and tariff-induced price pressures should have a larger impact next year. On the other hand, the recent surge in financial volatility—a de-facto tightening of financial conditions—threatens to slow global growth (and therefore U.S. Growth) on its own if it persists in 2019.